Crisis report

SITUATION REPORT July 14, 2010

STRATFOR, 14.07.2010

Iran: Natural Gas Exports Not Limited To Nabucco
July 14, 2010 1442 GMT
The interests of Iranian natural gas exports are not limited to the Nabucco pipeline project, Iranian Oil Minister Masoud Mir Kazemi said July 14, Itar-Tass reported. Iran must speak with other companies, Kazemi said. Iranian media reported that Tehran has begun constructing a natural gas pipeline, which will be completed in three years and will run from the southern city of Assaluyeh to Bazargan near the Turkish border, from where it will be sent to European consumers.
Palestinian Territories: U.S. Pressuring Abbas To Join Talks
July 14, 2010 1433 GMT
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is being pressured by the U.S. administration to begin direct peace negotiations with Israel, Mahmoud al-Aloul, a Palestinian official and senior member of Abbas' Fatah party said July 14, Xinhua reported. Al-Aloul said the pressure is both implicit and explicit in nature, and the Fatah Central Committee will convene in support of Abbas. The committee may meet before July 17, when U.S. Middle East envoy George Mitchell is scheduled to meet with Abbas.
Afghanistan: Peace With Taliban A Long Process - Official
July 14, 2010 1415 GMT
An adviser to Afghan President Hamid Karzai said July 14 that Taliban militants who pledge loyalty to Kabul will be "recycled" into the insurgency if the Taliban leadership remains intact, Reuters reported. Mohammad Masoom Stanekzai said about 20,000 to 30,000 Taliban militants are currently fighting approximately 150,000 foreign soldiers and roughly twice as many government troops and police. While some insurgents appeared willing to join the peace process following the June peace conference, the process must address the leadership issue, Stanekzai said. As long as sanctuaries exist in Pakistan, the Taliban leadership will continue to "recruit people, access resources and send them back," Stanekzai added.
Russia: Turkey, Brazil Not Included In P-5+1 Talks - FM
July 14, 2010 1410 GMT
Turkey and Brazil will not join talks with the P-5+1 group of international mediators on Tehran's nuclear program, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said July 14, RIA Novosti reported. Lavrov said the U.N. Security Council recognizes the P-5+1, consisting of Russia, China, the United States, Britain, France and Germany, as the informal leader on Iranian nuclear negotiations, and that while it is clear other countries, including Turkey and Brazil, are interested in a peaceful resolution for Iran's nuclear program, there have been no discussions on their inclusion in the negotiation process.
Egypt: Somali President To Visit
July 14, 2010 1407 GMT
Somali President Sharif Ahmed will visit Egypt to meet with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and other officials July 17-19, QNA reported July 14. Ahmed will discuss developments in Somalia and the Horn of Africa. Egyptian Assistance Foreign Ministers for African Affairs Mona Omar said Ahmed is visiting at Mubarak's invitation, and that Egypt wants to play an important part in solving the Somali problem.
Uganda: Receives Al Shabaab Suspect From Kenya
July 14, 2010 1404 GMT
Kenya delivered a suspected al Shabaab militant to Uganda on July 14, according to a Ugandan official, Xinhua reported. Ali Isa Ssenkumba, the suspected member of the Somali Islamist militant group, was arrested last week in Nairobi by Kenyan police.
Egypt: Turkish President To Visit
July 14, 2010 1403 GMT
Turkish President Abdullah Gul will begin a two-day visit to Egypt on July 20, KUNA reported July 14. Gul and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will discuss Middle East developments, particularly the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and means of boosting bilateral relations.
Slovenia: Turkish President Visits
July 14, 2010 1401 GMT
Turkish President Abdullah Gul visited Slovenia for talks with Slovenian President Danilo Turk, TRT Turk reported July 14. After meeting with Turk, Gul visited the Slovenian parliament, and met with Prime Minister Borut Pahor and Parliament Speaker Pavel Gantar.
Russia: Peacekeeping Efforts May Increase - Envoy
July 14, 2010 1340 GMT
Russia intends to increase its involvement in U.N. peacekeeping operations, Russian Ambassador to the U.N. Vitaly Churkin said, Interfax reported July 14. Churkin said before the increase, financial issues must be worked out between the Russian Finance Ministry, Defense Ministry and the U.N. Secretariat. As an example of possible aid, Churkin said Russia could contribute more helicopters to peacekeeping operations.
Ukraine: Raises Household Gas Prices For IMF Loan
July 14, 2010 1332 GMT
Ukraine will raise household gas prices by 50 percent beginning in August to secure a $14.9 billion standby loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to Ukrainian Prime Minister Nikolai Azarov, Reuters reported July 14. The new price will affect the approximately 18 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas used in Ukrainian households yearly; Ukraine consumes 47-50 bcm of natural gas each year.
Turkey: NATO Requests Kabul Regional Command Extension
July 14, 2010 1329 GMT
NATO Senior Civilian Representative in Afghanistan Mark Sedwill on July 12 requested that Turkey extend its mission to lead the Kabul Regional Command for an additional year, NTV reported July 14. Turkey did not give a definitive response and is presently assessing the request.
South Africa: Eskom Unions Sign Wage Agreement
July 14, 2010 1245 GMT
Eskom trade unions Solidarity, the National Union of Mineworkers and the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa signed a one-year deal to increase wages by 9 percent, SAPA reported July 14. The agreement will apply retroactively from July 1.
India: States Will Create Unified Anti-Naxal Command
July 14, 2010 1244 GMT
The Indian government requested that Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Orissa and West Bengal states establish a "unified command for anti-Naxal operations" and appoint a retired army major general as its leader, Indian Home Minister P. Chidambaram said July 14, Press Trust of India reported. The government will supply the states with helicopters for logistical support and will fund the creation and improvement of 400 police stations in the states.
Egypt: Mubarak To Meet With Abbas, Netanyahu
July 14, 2010 1231 GMT
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will meet in Cairo with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on July 17 and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on July 18, diplomatic sources close to Mubarak said, Al-Bawaba reported July 14. The meeting with Netanyahu was originally scheduled for July 13; the decision to reschedule was an effort to avoid links between the visit and any possible hostilities against a Gaza-bound Libyan aid ship, rather than concerns over Mubarak's health, the sources said.
Iran: Afghan FM To Visit
July 14, 2010 1216 GMT
Afghan Foreign Minister Zalmai Rassoul will visit Tehran on July 15, FNA reported July 14. Rassoul's visit is intended to renew Afghanistan's invitation to Iranian counterpart Manouchehr Mottaki to the international conference in Kabul. Iran is studying the invitation, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said.
Uzbekistan: German FM To Visit
July 14, 2010 1209 GMT
German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle will visit Uzbekistan on July 15 to meet Uzbek counterpart Vladimir Norov and President Islam Karimov, according to the German Embassy, Trend reported July 14.
Afghanistan: Taliban Ambush Supply Convoy - Report
July 14, 2010 1159 GMT
Taliban militants ambushed a supply convoy in Bakwa district, Farah province, in western Afghanistan on July 14, according to the Taliban's Voice of Jihad website. The convoy was on the Kandahar-Herat highway when militants attacked in Tut area at 9 a.m. local time. Three soldiers were killed and two others wounded, and one vehicle was destroyed.
Russia: Oil Company To Drill Off Cuba
July 14, 2010 1059 GMT
Russian state oil company Zarubezhneft plans to drill a shelf at the L block near Cuba beginning in 2011, company CEO Nikolai Brunich said on July 14, RIA Novosti reported. Zarubezhneft signed four contracts with the Cuban national oil company, Cubapetroleo, in November 2009 regarding geological exploration and hydrocarbon production.
EU: Inflation Figures Released
July 14, 2010 1023 GMT
The eurozone's annual inflation stood at 1.4 percent in June, down from 1.6 percent the month before, Eurostat announced July 14. For June, the lowest annual rates occurred in Ireland, down 2 percent; Latvia, down 1.6 percent; and the Netherlands, at 0.2 percent. The highest for that figure included Greece at 5.2 percent, Hungary at 5 percent and Romania at 4.3 percent.
Israel: Egypt Agrees To Allow Libyan Vessel Access
July 14, 2010 1015 GMT
Egypt has agreed to allow a Libyan-sponsored ship carrying aid to Gaza to dock in El Arish port, The Egyptian Gazette reported July 14, citing Middle East News Agency. The Israeli navy had reportedly said the vessel could not proceed to Gaza.