Brief: An Award For The Turkish Prime Minister
March 10, 2010 1657 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan returned from a visit to Saudi Arabia March 10, where a day earlier he was given the King Faisal International Prize for Service to Islam -- an annual award given to individuals who make extraordinary contributions to Islam and the Muslim world at large. Receiving an award from the Saudis for his service in the cause of religion -- especially at a time of heightened tensions between his ruling Islamist-rooted Justice & Development Party (AKP) and the military-led secularist establishment -- will provide the AKP's opponents with material to attempt to undermine Erdogan's government. This highlights the dilemma of the AKP leadership as they do not want to appear as a religious force in domestic politics, yet they need to appeal to religion to further their foreign policy objectives, and increase Turkey's leadership in the Islamic world, and its status as a growing power.

Afghanistan: Turkish Governors To Train Afghan Governors - British Envoy
March 10, 2010 1656 GMT
British Ambassador to Afghanistan Mark Sedwill, serving as a senior NATO official there, said Turkish governors will train Afghan governors, in an effort to help solve the problem of clans in Afghanistan, Hurriyet reported March 10.

China: Government In Talks With Google
March 10, 2010 1645 GMT
Google Inc. is in "active talks with the Chinese government," Google CEO Eric Schmidt said March 10, Bloomberg reported. Schmidt added that there is no specific timetable regarding talks with China, "but something will happen soon."

Kyrgyzstan: President Meets With Petraeus On Afghanistan
March 10, 2010 1644 GMT
Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev met with U.S. Central Command chief Gen. David Petraeus in Bishkek March 10 to discuss Kyrgyzstan's involvement in Afghanistan, Kyrgyz news agency 24.kg reported, citing a statement from Bakiyev's press office. Bakiyev and Petraeus also spoke of continued bilateral cooperation on issues of mutual interest between the United States and Kyrgyzstan.

Somalia: NATO Extends Anti-Piracy Mission
March 10, 2010 1627 GMT
NATO will extend its anti-piracy mission off the coast of Somalia to the end of 2012, from the previously scheduled date of August 2010, a NATO spokesman said March 10, DPA reported.

Brief: Portugal Bond Auction A Success
March 10, 2010 1619 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Portugal's Institute for Public Credit Management successfully sold 990 million euros of 11-year bonds at an interest rate of 4.17 percent on March 10, shortly after releasing its new set of austerity measures on March 8. The bond auction was oversubscribed, which means there was more investor demand for bonds than the government intended to sell, a positive sign that interest in Portugal's debt exists. Portugal plans to issue about 18 to 20 billion euro of debt in 2010. While the single bond auction is only a small step on its way to financing its annual outlays, it is a step in the right direction that indicates that Portugal's austerity plan has sufficiently reassured investors. Hurdles remain, however with a vote on the 2010 budget March 12 and debate on the planned austerity measures March 25. The Portuguese government also continues to face pressures from opposition parties -- which actually hold a majority in parliament -- and unions, which have threatened further strikes.

U.K.: Royal Dutch Shell Says No Longer Selling Gasoline To Iran
March 10, 2010 1605 GMT
Royal Dutch Shell PLC said it is discontinuing gasoline sales to Iran, making it the most recent oil company to stop gasoline sales to the Islamic republic, reported Dow Jones on March 10. A spokesman for the company declined comment regarding whether the decision was due to sanctions against Iran.

Brief: Niger Calls For $123 Million In Aid
March 10, 2010 1534 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Niger's prime minister, appointed by the military junta which took power in a Feb. 18 coup, announced March 10 that the country was in need of $123 million of additional aid to prevent a looming food crisis. Mahamadou Danda said that the total cost needed to ensure food security for the millions of Nigeriens expected to be hit by the effects of the poor harvests, a a result of inadequate rainfall in 2009, will amount to 89 billion CFA francs (roughly $185 million), of which around 30 billion CFA francs (roughly $62 million) is already available. Danda's call follows a Feb. 28 statement from Maj. Salou Djibo, the leader of the junta known as the Supreme Council for the Restoration of Democracy (CSRD), in which he brought attention to the looming food shortages that were first made public during the final months of recently ousted president Mamadou Tandja's regime. Publicizing this issue and calling for international food aid is a break from the previous policies under Tandja, who presided over Niger's last food crisis in 2005 and was widely criticized at the time for downplaying its severity. The data being used to support the current predictions of looming food shortages comes from a government report prepared in December 2009, which was subsequently leaked to the Niger's press in January of this year. According to the report, a total of 7.8 million Nigeriens (out of a total population of roughly 15 million) could be affected in some way by the food shortages by late summer, though only 2.7 million were forecast to be subject to severe food insecurity.

France: Israeli Housing Plan Illegal, Ill-Timed
March 10, 2010 1529 GMT
France said March 10 that Israel's plan to build 1,600 housing units in East Jerusalem is illegal under international law and the announcement is poorly timed, given that recent agreement to resume indirect Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, Reuters reported, citing a statement from the French Foreign Ministry.

Palestinian Territories: Hamas Leader Criticizes Negotiations Between Arabs and Israel
March 10, 2010 1527 GMT
Ismail Haniyeh, a leader of Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza, criticized the Palestinian Authority and Arab Peace Initiative Committee for its decision to approve the continuation of indirect peace negotiations with Israel, reported Kuwait News Agency on March 10. Haniyeh said the decision has promoted Israeli settlement expansion in Jerusalem and the West Bank, and he urges the Arabs and Palestinians not to rush negotiations with Israel.

Turkey: Erdogan Returns With Islamic Service Prize
March 10, 2010 1517 GMT
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan received the King Faisal International Prize for Service to Islam in Saudi Arabia March 9, the Turkish state-run Anatolia news agency reported March 10. The King Faisal International Prize is presented to scientists and others who make contributions to Islam and a positive difference in the world. At the award ceremony, Erdogan said Turkey has strived to establish peace, stability and security in the region and the world.

Brief: Google As A WTO Complaint?
March 10, 2010 1509 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
The United States is working with American Internet companies to get a clearer picture of their experiences providing services in China, and is attempting to determine whether China's Internet regulations against Google are compliant with World Trade Organization (WTO) standards, according to U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk. The possibility was previously floated by the U.S. Trade Representative's office, which said that it was speaking with American companies to determine whether China's restrictions were discriminatory against American Internet companies. Now Kirk has openly acknowledged that the United States could file a dispute at the WTO against China claiming its Internet restrictions prevent fair competition. Kirk said the United States would prefer to settle the problems bilaterally, for instance through the U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade, but could go to the WTO as a last resort. Kirk also said Google and the Chinese government had been engaged in "very intense negotiations" after Google's threat to close down its Chinese search engine, accusing the Chinese government of engineering cyberattacks against it -- this was contrary to recent claims by some Chinese officials that talks were not taking place. The United States and China will continue to experience rough trade relations over a variety of traded goods and protectionist measures, especially given the many contingencies in the global economic recovery. The Internet has arisen as another sphere where these spats are taking shape. The U.S. administration's push for "digital diplomacy," and human rights being applicable on the Internet, has made the trade spat particularly sensitive, as China believes this policy treads on its political and security interests.

Brief: China's Housing Prices Keep Rising
March 10, 2010 1506 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
On March 10 China's National Bureau of Statistics released February housing price numbers indicating China's housing prices continued to grow in February by 10.7 percent year-on-year and up 0.9 percent from January. These rising numbers come as Chinese leaders continue this year's National People's Congress session, in which political leaders have pledged repeatedly to "use economic and legal measures" to stabilize housing price growth, since high housing prices frequently cause social frustration and incentivize property development trends that are socially destabilizing. Banking regulators in January and February raised the amount of reserves banks must keep on hand to slow down loan growth. In February, loan growth is predicted to slow to 700 billion yuan ($102 billion) from 1.6 trillion yuan in January. However, the housing sector has still been a major recipient of domestic loans. In January and February, the amount of domestic loans going to real estate developers grew by 46.1 percent from the same period last year, compared with an average of 48 percent in 2009. This indicates only a slight decrease in price growth, possibly due to the Chinese New Year holiday in February and government measures to restrain prices. Most of the housing growth has been concentrated in Hainan, Guangzhou in Guangdong province, Wenzhou in Zhejiang province and Beijing -- cities already suspected of having real estate bubbles. The highest growth was in Haikou and Sanya in Hainan Island, which grew by 58 percent and 56 percent compared with the same period last year. Hainan, a major tourist destination in China, experienced a housing market crash in 1993. This year the central government is struggling to make policy adjustments to stabilize housing price growth without popping asset price bubbles in China's major cities.

Belarus: Russian Natural Gas To Be Upped
March 10, 2010 1505 GMT
Belarus anticipates increasing the amount of Russian natural gas transiting its territory by 15 percent to 51.3 billion cubic meters in 2010, reported Interfax on March 10, citing a Belarusian Energy Ministry official. The Beltransgaz pipeline system, particularly, will pump 18.5 billion cubic meters of gas in 2010, compared to 14.3 billion cubic meters the previous year.

Togo: Opposition Leader Will Not Appeal To Constitutional Court
March 10, 2010 1446 GMT
Togolese opposition leader Jean-Pierre Fabre said March 10 that he will not appeal to the country's constitutional court to protest the results from the March 4 election, Xinhua reported. Fabre, leader of the United Forces for Change, told a local television channel that he believed the constitutional court would rule against his appeal if he brought one, and that he knows what the Togolese constitutional court "has been doing for a very long time."

Tajikistan: 56 Muslim Activists Convicted For Extremist Activities
March 10, 2010 1446 GMT
Tajikistan's top court sentenced 56 supporters of Tablighi Jamaat, a militant Muslim group, on March 10 for extremist activities in the Central Asian state, reported RIA Novosti. A court spokesperson said 23 of the convicted were given jail terms ranging from three to six years, and the other 33 were given fines between $8,000 and $16,000.

Brief: New Russian Party In Works?
March 10, 2010 1435 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Moscow-based newspaper Trud reported March 10 that Russian President Dmitri Medvedev may be creating a new political party to challenge United Russia, the ruling party of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. The Trud report said that the party will be "business-oriented" and will compete with United Russia in the 2011 parliamentary elections. There are no other reports that corroborate the Trud report, and the newspaper did not reveal the source of this information. Many media outlets have been depicting a growing split between Medvedev and Putin. STRATFOR has noted that there is indeed a growing rivalry in Russia, but it is not so much a personal one between Putin and Medvedev. Rather, it is complex feud that involves the competing clans of power between that of Deputy Presidential Chief of Staff Vladislav Surkov (which Medvedev falls under) and that of Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin. While it cannot be ruled out, STRATFOR views the report by Trud skeptically and will continue to monitor the situation for further developments.

UAE: Al-Maktoum To Visit India
March 10, 2010 1430 GMT
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, the prime minister of Dubai and the UAE Vice president, will visit India March 11 for a two-day visit, the Emirates new agency reported March 10. Al-Maktoum and senior Indian officials will discuss strengthening bilateral relations, focusing on common interests and economic issues.

Nigeria: Fulanis To Be Charged With Murder - Police
March 10, 2010 1412 GMT
Some 49 Fulanis will be charged with murder and conspiracy, said Nigerian Plateau State Commissioner Ikechukwu Aduba, AFP reported on March 10. The announcement followed their arrests from a weekend attack on Christian Berom villagers, in which the suspects reportedly said they were seeking revenge.

Iraq: Unofficial Results On Election Reported
March 10, 2010 1410 GMT
Unofficial results for Iraq's March 7 parliamentary election have been reported March 10 by Iraqi Web site Babanews, citing unnamed sources in Iraq's Organization of Election Monitoring. According to the preliminary results, which cannot be verified at this time, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition leads with 95 seats, the Iraqiya list won 68 seats, the Iraqi National Alliance won 50 seats and the Kurdistan Alliance won 30 seats. The Change list led by Nawshirwan Mustafa won 12 seats, the Iraq Unity list led by Jawad Bolani won 10 seats and the Accord Front won eight seats.

Egypt: Grand Sheikh Dies In Saudi Arabia
March 10, 2010 1402 GMT
Mohamed Sayyid Tantawi, the grand sheikh of Al-Azhar mosque in Cairo, died of a heart attack on March 10 at 81, Al Masry Al Youm reported, citing state television. Tantawi, who died in Saudi Arabia, is expected to be buried there.

Saudi Arabia: U.S. Secretary Of Defense Visits
March 10, 2010 1348 GMT
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has arrived in Saudi Arabia to meet with Saudi King Abdullah, Reuters reported March 10. Gates will discuss the stabilization of Yemen, U.S. efforts to impose sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, and urge Saudi Arabia to engage with Iraq ahead of the U.S. withdrawal from the country. An unnamed official told Reuters that Gates will update Abdullah on the status of U.S. policy toward Iran, and that the United States has changed its approach from the "engagement track" to the "pressure track."

U.S.: Israeli Plans To Build Undermines Trust - V.P.
March 10, 2010 1347 GMT
U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said on March 10 that the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations require an atmosphere of support, and that Israeli plans to build new housing units in East Jerusalem undermine trust needed to proceed, Reuters reported. He spoke with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas by his side in the West Bank city of Ramallah.

Georgia: Protesters Call For Unbiased Elections
March 10, 2010 1334 GMT
The youth wing of the Alliance for Georgia protested outside the Georgian Foreign Ministry, calling for unbiased May 30 elections, Rustavi 2 reported March 10. The president of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Parliamentary Assembly, Joao Soares, spoke with the protesters.

Brief: German Exports Plunge
March 10, 2010 1323 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Provisional data from Germany's Federal Statistical Office released March 10 showed that German exports declined a seasonally-adjusted 6.3 percent in January over the previous month, reversing four months of positive growth. Since Germany -- and indeed, most of Europe -- is dealing with rising unemployment and ongoing problems within its banking sector, domestic demand is not going to pull Germany out of recession -- it needs external demand for its exports, the main engine of its growth. However, even though exports were steady rising throughout the fourth quarter of 2009, Germany only posted gross domestic product "growth" of 0.0 percent that quarter. Though figures released March 8 showed that industrial production inched up to a seasonally-adjusted 0.6 percent in January over the previous month, it appears Germany is stumbling economically in the first quarter of 2010, which will make rallying support for any financial assistance package to Greece all the more difficult for Berlin.

India: Cutback On Mission In Afghanistan Studied
March 10, 2010 1307 GMT
India is studying whether to cut back operations of missions in Afghanistan after attacks on Indian nationals there, Press Trust of India reported March 10. New Delhi is also reportedly looking at keeping Indians together on projects to ensure their safety.

Brief: Greece - A Nation On Strike
March 10, 2010 1259 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news Greece is bracing for a nationwide strike on March 11 that is joined by the largest public- and private-sector unions and is intended to protest the budget austerity measures proposed by the government. The austerity measures are supposed to cut Athens' budget deficit by 4 percent of gross domestic product. The strike is expected to shut down all flights, ground transportation, hospitals, schools and border crossings in Greece, with workers leaving their posts at midnight and staying home for 24 hours. There may be associated unrest and protest later in the day, as there were on March 4-5. Meanwhile, an unnamed Greek official was cited in a March 9 Wall Street Journal report that said if the European Union does not come forward to help Greece reduce its financing costs, then Athens will have to turn to the International Monetary Fund. Greece has around 18 billion euro ($24.4 billion) worth of bonds to raise by the end of May, and union activity and strikes will not help reduce the cost of financing: They may in fact increase it as investors seek a premium to cover the possibility that Athens cannot implement their austerity measures in the face of strong social opposition.

Brief: The Building Of A Ukrainian Cabinet
March 10, 2010 1242 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich offered on March 10 the post of deputy prime minister in charge of economic affairs to Sergei Tigipko. Tigipko, who is a former chairman of Ukraine's central bank and who came in third in the country's recent presidential elections, is said to have accepted the post, which is a cabinet-level position. Meanwhile, former Parliamentary Speaker and fourth-place finisher Arseniy Yatseniuk said March 10 that he will not join Yanukovich's Cabinet and will go into the opposition. The attention now turns to who will be offered the prime minister post, as Tigipko and Yatseniuk were seen as front runners for that position. The appointment, however, cannot be made by Yanukovich until he is able to form a majority coalition in the parliament. Though parliament passed a law March 9 that allowed individual deputies to join into a coalition rather than as a faction (or a majority of a party) -- a boon to Yanukovich in the complex numbers game that is Ukrainian coalition politics -- some MPs have claimed that they will challenge the ruling in the constitutional court. This matter should be settled within a few days, but it is likely that Yanukovich will be able to get his coalition and begin his pro-Russian presidency with a strong mandate.

U.S.: Israel Apologizes For Announcement During V.P. Visit
March 10, 2010 1213 GMT
Israel apologized March 10 for announcing the construction of 1,600 new homes in east Jerusalem during the visit of U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, but Israeli Interior Minister Eli Yishai said plans for the construction will continue, AP reported, citing an interview with Israel Radio. Yishai said that next time, Israel needs to take timing into account when securing approval that is in accordance with law.

EU: Foreign Affairs Chief Speaks Against Israeli Building Plans
March 10, 2010 1155 GMT
European Union foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton echoed U.S. Vice President Joe Biden's concerns about Israel's plans to build 1,600 new houses in east Jerusalem, saying she condemned the decision, EU Business reported March 10. Ashton was speaking before EU legislators at their parliament seat in Strasbourg, France.

Germany: CPI Rose in February
March 10, 2010 1130 GMT
Germany's February consumer price index rose 0.6 percent, Destatis reported March 10. In January the inflation rate was 0.8 percent; the rate of price increase was down in February. Compared with January, the consumer price index was up by 0.4 percent. The estimate for February was revised upward from +0.4 percent to +0.6 percent.

China: Control Tightened On Bank Bonuses
March 10, 2010 1109 GMT
China issued rules restricting bonus payments for bankers, Sino Daily reported March 10. Commercial banks will be able to reclaim bonuses already paid to executives and suspend future payments if their actions result in big losses, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said. They must also retain at least 40 percent of bonus payments for three years, the regulator said on its Web site. The amount of bad debts held by a bank will be one of the factors taken into consideration when assessing an executive's performance.

India, Russia: Angarsk Nuclear Fuel Bank Set Up
March 10, 2010 1102 GMT
The chairman of India's Atomic Energy Research Commission Srikumar Banerjee said India may join Russia's nuclear center that involves a low-enriched uranium (LEU) reserves project in Angarsk, RIA Novosti reported March 10. He said it is not just a political arrangement, and cannot state that India is joining now, but India has the capability of joining as an equal partner in some activities.
France, U.K.: Sarkozy Warns Cameron
March 10, 2010 1054 GMT
French President Nicolas Sarkozy will deliver a firm warning to David Cameron that the Conservatives risk forfeiting vital French cooperation on energy, defense and the economy if they refuse to engage over the future of Europe, The Guardian reported March 10. Sarkozy is due to meet Cameron March 12 after a working lunch with Gordon Brown in Downing Street.

Iraq: Election Results Announced March 11
March 10, 2010 1045 GMT
Special Representative of the Secretary General for Iraq Ad Melkert said the preliminary results of the elections will be announced the morning of March 11, Aswat al-Iraq reported March 10. It is important that all parties accept the results that are not yet final, he said, and must take into consideration that the counting is an honest process.

China: President's Son Invited To Taiwan
March 10, 2010 1039 GMT
Chinese President Hu Jintao's son has been invited to visit Taiwan for an academic conference, Sino Daily reported March 10. Taiwan's Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies "secretly invited" Hu Haifeng to attend an international conference in May, according to unnamed sources quoted in Next Magazine. Sources said Hu Haifeng, deputy secretary general of Beijing's prestigious Tsinghua University, expressed an interest in visiting Taiwan. When contacted by AFP, the foundation confirmed that it would co-host an international political seminar in May but denied it had invited Hu for a visit.

Greece: EU Aid May Be Needed
March 10, 2010 1030 GMT
Greece may seek EU financial aid if borrowing costs don't fall sharply in coming weeks, The Wall Street Journal reported March 10. The high premium now charged by investors for Greek bonds is "simply unsustainable" and must be brought down in the coming six to eight weeks, one official said. He added that if the spreads don't tighten to around two percentage points before "crunch time" in April or May, Greece will publicly ask for EU economic assistance and if there is no response, there will be no other choice but to turn to the IMF.

Mali: Spanish, Italian Hostages To Be Released
March 10, 2010 1018 GMT
One of the Malian negotiators stated that a Spanish woman and an Italian woman held hostage by al Qaeda's Maghreb branch in northern Mali are being released and "are about to leave" for Burkina Faso, AFP reported March 10. Italian Sergio Cicala, aged 65, is still being held.

Iran: U.S. Playing Games In Afghanistan
March 10, 2010 1007 GMT
During a trip to Afghanistan, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the United States is "playing a double game," AP reported March 10. He said the United States "created the terrorists" and now they are fighting them. Ahmadinejad criticized foreign forces and the amount of money being spent on troops, money that he said would have been better spent on irrigation and other development projects. Afghan President Hamid Karzai said Iran was a "brother nation" that is assisting Afghanistan with reconstruction projects, improving education and helping provide electricity.

Germany: Exports Plunged In January
March 10, 2010 0855 GMT
German exports plunged 6.3 percent in January, DPA reported March 10. At the same time, monthly imports dropped by 6 percent. The trade surplus narrowed to 8.7 billion euros ($11.8 billion) from 16.6 billion euros in December. Year on year, January exports edged up 0.2 percent, while imports slumped 1.4 percent.