Iraq: Drawdown On Target - Pentagon
March 3, 2010 1958 GMT
The Pentagon said on March 3 that it would be under extraordinary circumstances that a U.S. combat brigade would stay in Iraq beyond August as a result of deteriorating security, Reuters reported, citing a department spokesman. In spite of the March 3 bombings in Baquba, Iraq, the spokesman said, Washington is on target to draw down troops to 50,000 as of Sept. 1.
Iran: Tougher Sanctions Studied
March 3, 2010 1946 GMT
The United States is circulating a draft of tougher sanctions against Iran that focuses on banking, shipping and insurance, and awaits China and Russia's nod that they are willing to start negotiating over the measures, The New York Times reported March 3, citing U.N. Security Council diplomats. A full ban on some transactions is included; currently, sanctions call for "restraint" in dealing with Iran. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is targeted; the oil industry is not.
Afghanistan: High Dropout Rate Plagues Afghan Forces
March 3, 2010 1936 GMT
The Afghan army faces a dropout rate of 18 percent, and for the police, it is 25 percent, said Lt. Gen. William B. Caldwell, who is heading the effort to increase those forces' numbers, Reuters reported. In the elite police unit, the Afghan National Civil Order Police, the dropout figure is 60-70 percent, he said. He said he is not pleased with the number of Pashtuns joining the army, and an advertising effort is under way to draw Pashtun recruits.
U.S.: Brazil Agrees Iran Should Not Have Nuke Weapons - Clinton
March 3, 2010 1932 GMT
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in a press conference with Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim on March 3, said that Brazil and the United States were in agreement that Iran should not posses nuclear arms, G1.globo reported. Amorim said it was unclear how Brazil would vote in relation to the U.N. Security Council, but said he favored negotiations with Iran. Before a meeting with Clinton, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said, "it is not wise to push Iran into a corner. It is wise to establish negotiations."
Afghanistan: Opium Poppy Eradication To Continue
March 3, 2010 1918 GMT
Afghanistan's government plans to eradicate opium poppies across the country, but will not target areas where military operations are under way until the militants have been pushed out of those areas and development programs have been launched, Deputy Interior Minister Mohammed Daud Daud said March 3, AFP reported. Eradication has begun in parts of Helmand, Nangarhar and Farah provinces, and will soon begin in Kandahar province, Daud said. He added that poppy cultivation had been stopped in 25 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces by 2009.
Greece: PM To Travel To France, Germany, U.S.
March 3, 2010 1914 GMT
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will travel to France on March 7 to meet with President Nicolas Sarkozy, Reuters reported March 3, citing Papandreou's office. On March 5, Papandreou will meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin and on March 9, he will meet with U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington.
The Netherlands: NATO Does Not Know How Will Replace Troops
March 3, 2010 1900 GMT
NATO is not sure how it will replace 2,000 Dutch troops after a planned pullout by that country from Afghanistan, Bloomberg reported March 3, citing NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. But, he said, the pullout will likely not influence other allies to follow suit, and the alliance will remain committed. Actually, he said, countries have actually promised reinforcements in recent months.
Venezuela: Commission Approves Sale Of $4.65 Billion In Bonds
March 3, 2010 1838 GMT
The Venezuelan Finances Commission approved the release of $4.65 billion in bonds to cover yearly government expenses, El Universal reported March 3. The bond sale was scheduled in the 2010 Debt Law.
India: PM Says U.S. Pressure Is Not Behind Talks With Pakistan
March 3, 2010 1819 GMT
Indian opposition leader L.K. Advani, addressing to the lower house of parliament March 3, said U.S. pressure has led to India's decision to renew talks with Pakistan, and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh intervened in Advani's speech, saying that U.S. President Barack Obama has said "there is no change in the U.S. policy toward India and Pakistan" relations, Press Trust of India reported. Singh said Advani's suggestion that the United States was behind India's foreign secretary-level talks with Pakistan is "certainly not true."
Turkey: Court Chief Calls For Compromise On Constitution Changes
March 3, 2010 1758 GMT
The president of Turkey's constitutional court, Hasim Kilic, said March 3 that the country "needs serious constitutional reform, but this should be done through a full compromise" between the government and the opposition, Hurriyet reported. Kilic also said that if no compromise is made, all changes made will end up back in the court for annulment. Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal, at a closed-door session of the CHP central executive committee meeting, said the CHP would apply to the constitutional court for annulment if the Turkish Parliament passes the reform package, CNN Turk reported.
Thailand: Prosecutors To Request Warrant For Yellow Shirts Leader
March 3, 2010 1736 GMT
Thailand's public prosecutors plan to request that police issue an arrest warrant for Sondhi Limthongkul, a leader of the People's Alliance for Democracy (the "yellow shirts"), for repeating a message by a leader of the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship (the "red shirts") who has been charged with lese majeste, Thailand's daily The Nation reported March 3, citing Kayasit Pitsawongprakarn, a senior public prosecutor of criminal litigation.
Brief: Greece Considers IMF Assistance
March 3, 2010 1704 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Speaking at a Cabinet meeting March 3, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou did not rule out Athens' seeking the assistance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should the European Union or the eurozone fail to provide what Athens considers adequate financial support. Athens is using the threat of seeking IMF assistance as a way to pressure the European Union to provide financial aid. The Europeans do not want Greece to go to the IMF (an institution most closely associated with the United States) because it would reflect poorly on the European Union. However, they do not want to write a check because it's politically difficult (if not impossible) at present -- yet they do not want Athens to default on its debts because it could harm the eurozone as a whole. Balancing these competing interests will undoubtedly be the topic of conversation when Papandreou travels to Berlin to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on March 5 and to Paris to meet French President Nicolas Sarkozy on March 7.
Kazakhstan, Russia: PMs Discuss Cooperation
March 3, 2010 1653 GMT
Kazakh Prime Minister Karim Massimov, meeting in Moscow with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on March 3, said cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia in the fields of space and nuclear industry "have good perspectives," and he noted the importance of developing the electric-power industry, Kazinform reported. Massimov added that "there is a range of joint enterprises between our states that can and must be used in establishment of the balance of power." Also, Massimov said the Customs Union commission is scheduled to meet May 21.
Afghanistan: Marjah Operation The 'Right Strategy' - NATO Chief
March 3, 2010 1651 GMT
NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said March 2 that the military operation in Marjah was the first test of a new approach to Afghanistan and that initial results are showing it is the "right strategy," DPA reported. He said the Helmand Province action will not be the last of its type and that the Afghan people will benefit from the approach in other areas of the country this year.
Afghanistan: Taliban Criticizes Press Ban
March 3, 2010 1634 GMT
The Taliban condemned the Afghan government's ban on live media reports about the militant group's attacks, saying it undermines freedom of the press, AFP reported March 3. The rebel group banned music, television and education for girls during its rule. The Taliban respects the free press, said a spokesman, adding that the government is trying to hide its failures.
Colombia: FARC Commander Arrested
March 3, 2010 1624 GMT
The commander of the 10th Front of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), identified as Ivan Dario Tobon, was captured in Armenia, Quindio department, El Espectador reported March 3. Dario Tobon was reportedly arrested after two years of surveillance by Colombian police.
Venezuela: Globovision Cameraman Reportedly Kidnapped
March 3, 2010 1624 GMT
A cameraman for Venezuelan television station Globovision identified as Lender Neira reportedly was kidnapped by unknown persons near a police station in San Francisco, Zulia state, Globovision reported March 3. The kidnappers reportedly beat Neira and took him away in a truck belonging to the San Francisco mayor's office, the channel said.
Brief: ECB To Use In-House Credit Ratings?
March 3, 2010 1618 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Germany's Handelsblatt reported March 3 that European finance officials are proposing the European Central Bank (ECB) use its own proprietary country credit ratings, thereby sidelining international credit ratings agencies' influence over the ECB's ability to conduct monetary policy for the eurozone. Credit ratings agencies wield immense power, especially over bond markets, as the ratings they assign greatly influence investors' perception of the creditworthiness of businesses and sovereigns. Though markets make the final call on an institution's creditworthiness, the ratings agencies establish the baseline assessment, which influences investors' perception and thus the cost of credit financing for the rated institution (as well as comparable, not-rated institutions). With the sovereign debt crisis brewing in Southern Europe (and elsewhere), rating agencies' ability to influence the cost of credit financing for eurozone member states has become a highly political issue, all the more so since ratings agencies Standard & Poor's, Fitch and Moody's are U.S.-based institutions. Additionally, as their ratings are used as benchmarks in monetary policy, the agencies' rating decisions could (in the absence of a policy change by the ECB) determine whether a eurozone sovereign's bonds would be ineligible as collateral for liquidity at the ECB -- a facility which has been vital to keeping eurozone governments' financing costs down. As ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny admonished March 2, "the destiny of Greece and, to be dramatic, the destiny of Europe, depends really on one rating agency [Moody's] -- an unacceptable situation." STRATFOR recently noted that given adverse implications of a eurozone sovereign's bonds becoming ineligible as collateral, it was likely that the ECB would accommodate the bonds regardless of agencies' ratings -- using its own ratings would simply be another way to articulate that accommodation.
Pakistan: Accused Militant Issued Identity Card
March 3, 2010 1613 GMT
Abdul Malik Rigi, leader of militant group Jundullah, was one of more than 25,000 foreigners issued a Pakistani national identity card by the National Database and Registration Authority Balochistan, Aaj News reported March 3. His name was listed as Saeed Ahmed s/o Ghulam Haider, said Aaj.
Turkey: President To Meet With Opposition Leaders
March 3, 2010 1608 GMT
Turkish President Abdullah Gul will meet with opposition party leaders March 3, Azerbaijan's Trend reported, citing a report from CNN Turk. Gul's first meeting will be with Deniz Baykal, leader of the Republican People's Party.
India: Authorities Want Pakistan To Hand Over Saeed
March 3, 2010 1607 GMT
India wants Pakistan to hand over Hafiz Saeed to Indian authorities, Aaj News reported March 3, citing an Indian news channel. India reportedly provided Pakistan with dossiers containing new information about the Mumbai attacks and voiced annoyance at Saeed's interview with a private television station in which he announced jihad against India.
Azerbaijan, Syria: Natural Gas Pact Signed
March 3, 2010 1602 GMT
Syria and Azerbaijan signed a pact to send Azerbaijani natural gas to Middle Eastern and other nations, Syrian Deputy Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Hasan Zeinab said March 3, reported Trend Capital. Recent talks included representatives of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan, led by Industry and Energy Minister Natig Aliyev in Damascus. Once pipeline between Aleppo, Syria, and Kilis, Turkey, is completed, delivery will begin, Zeinab said.
Brief: Indonesian Military Unit May Get U.S. Training
March 3, 2010 1545 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Former Indonesia Defense Minister Juwono Sudarsono said March 3 that the United States is close to reversing a 12-year ban on training an elite unit of the Indonesian military and launch a training program for younger members of the Indonesian army's Special Forces, or Kopassus, ahead of U.S. President Barack Obama's March visit. Accused of human right abuses, Kopassus was banned from receiving U.S military education or training under the 1998 Leahy Law. While the details are still being discussed, strengthening ties with Kopassus is an important step for the United States to improve its defense relationship with Indonesia, a country that will play a key role in Washington's planned Southeast Asia re-engagement strategy.
Iraq: Intelligence Director Replaced
March 3, 2010 1542 GMT
The Iraqi Defense Ministry is taking Military Intelligence Director Maj. Gen. Alaa Jassim Salman off of his assignment and giving him another military job because of his inclusion in the accountability and justice results, Alsumaria News reported March 3, citing the ministry. Another, unnamed officer has been appointed to the position. A ministry spokesman said media announcements of names in the committee's results harm officers' ability to do their jobs, particularly in intelligence.
U.S.: Washington Looking At Reversal Of Training Ban
March 3, 2010 1532 GMT
U.S. President Barack Obama's administration is looking at reversing a ban on the training of the Indonesian elite military unit Komando Pasukan Khusus, or Kopassus, The Washington Post reported March 3. Younger members of the unit, whose older members were once convicted of beatings, kidnappings and other crimes, would train as a test. Unit commander Maj. Gen. Lodewijk Paulus and three other members of the group are discussing the proposal in Washington, unnamed sources said.
Brief: Turkey's Ruling Party Moves To Alter Referendum Pace
March 3, 2010 1527 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
The Turkish parliament is currently debating a proposal put forth by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to reduce the period needed before a referendum can be held in the country from 120 to 60 days. The proposal is a part of the AKP's move to accelerate constitutional changes. The AKP is likely to call a referendum to amend the constitution, as it appears unlikely that the AKP will be able to garner enough support from the opposition parties to pass constitutional changes through the parliament without a public referendum. The plan's details will be revealed next week, but it will aim to reform the judiciary system following the tension over the battle within the judiciary and the "Sledgehammer" operation. It is expected to include a change which will require parliamentary permission to open a dissolution case against a political party and reformation of Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK), which has long been subject to judiciary controversy. The response of Turkey's secular army and high judiciary to the proposal will bear close monitoring, as they consider an increasingly aggressive AKP a threat to their power within the republic. However, this staunchly secular faction appears to be remaining silent so far, which may mean that the AKP sought a compromise before making its intention public through meetings with the top Turkish military commander, Gen. Ilker Basbug and high judiciary officials after the recent political turmoil.
Georgia, Russia: Burjanadze Visits Moscow
March 3, 2010 1525 GMT
Leading Georgian opposition figure Nino Burjanadze is in Moscow on March 3 to improve ties between Russia and Georgia that were broken after the August 2008 Russo-Georgian war, RIA Novosti reported, citing a Georgian news agency.
Italy: Iranian Journalist Among Those Arrested
March 3, 2010 1523 GMT
Seven people were arrested by Italian police on March 3, including two Iranians believed to be secret agents and five Italians, Reuters reported. Two additional Iranians were being sought. Police say they believe they halted plans to export to Iran tracer bullets, explosives from eastern Europe and explosive material to make incendiary bombs. A supply of German-produced optical gear and special jackets made for military use was halted, and British, Swiss and Romanian authorities worked with the Italian police.
EU, U.S.: Concerns Expressed To IAEA Over Iran
March 3, 2010 1523 GMT
Spain sent a message on behalf of the European Union to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board strongly criticizing Iran on an array of issue linked to concerns about Tehran's nuclear program, AP reported March 3. The statement said Europe shares the IAEA's concerns about "past or current undisclosed activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile." U.S. chief delegate Glyn Davies said the IAEA's concerns about the possibility of new secret nuclear facilities in Iran are justified.
EU: Juncker Praises Greek Spending Cut Plan
March 3, 2010 1518 GMT
Eurozone finance ministers' group leader Jean-Claude Juncker praised Greece's plan to cut spending by 4.8 billion euros ($6.5 billion), EU Business reported March 3. Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg, said financial aid will be available if needed to fight Greece's debt crisis and called Greece's plan to cut spending "credibly on track."
Brief: Georgian Opposition Figure Visits Moscow
March 3, 2010 1506 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Former Georgian Parliamentary Speaker and key opposition figure Nino Burjanadze traveled to Moscow on March 3 to meet with Russian officials. Details on who she is meeting with have yet to be released. Burjanadze is an important political figure in Georgia. She served as acting head of state twice as a former ally of Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili and is now one of his critical opponents in the opposition. There has been a lot of buzz within the Georgian opposition lately, particularly around figures such as former premier Zurab Nogaideli and former Georgian Ambassador to the United Nations Irakli Alasani's recent visits and overtures to Russia. The Georgian opposition is notoriously fractured, split asmong 14 or more parties, and there have been controversial attempts to unite the opposition before local and mayoral elections take place in May. Burjanadze's visit to Moscow is therefore an important one to watch, as she could be an opposition leader who is not pro-Russian, but rather has held a pragmatic stance toward Moscow. She has several ties to Russia, and Moscow has demonstrated it is willing to work with her. While warming up to Russia remains a hot button issue within Georgia, Moscow has welcomed visits from key Georgian opposition figures in order to increase leverage in the country against the pro-Western Saakashvili.
Brief: China's Local Government Debt Overhaul
March 3, 2010 1505 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
China's Ministry of Finance is preparing to conduct a major operation to clean up the debt profiles of the country's local governments, according to Chinese media reports on March 3. The operation would appear to entail inspection and restructuring of up to 4,000 local government investment vehicles, which are responsible for securing funds for local governments, since local governments are not allowed to run budget deficits or (under normal circumstances) issue bonds. At the same time, the State Council would, according to the reports, expand the pilot program for local government bond issuance, which resulted in 200 billion yuan ($29 billion) of local government debt in its first year, 2009. The People's Bank of China, China's central bank, counted local government debt at 5 trillion yuan ($732 billion) in May 2009 -- estimates put the current total between 7 trillion ($1 trillion) and 11 trillion ($1.6 trillion), or about 21-33 percent of gross domestic product. Added to an estimated central government debt of 7 trillion yuan, China's total public debt could fall in the range of 14-18 trillion yuan or 42-55 percent of gross domestic product. While these debt levels are not necessarily alarming, what is alarming is that they have emerged in only the past twenty years, and that they have grown rapidly in the past year as China battled the effects of global recession. By addressing local governments' existing fundraising arms and allowing bonds to take a greater role in local government financing, the central government could get greater control over the local government debt situation, suspected of hiding mammoth financial risks due to the connections between local governments, banks and favored companies that have supported rapid credit-driven growth.
U.S.: Clinton To Visit Brazil
March 3, 2010 1501 GMT
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will meet with Brazilian counterpart Celso Amorim and President Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva to discuss economic sanctions on Iran and other issues of mutual interest, Folha reported March 3. Sources from Itamaraty (Brazil's Foreign Ministry) said that Iran will be one of the top issues discussed but that conversations would also address other topics that interest the Brazilian government. Clinton and Amorim are also expected to sign an agreement that will establish annual meetings between the two governments.
Brief: Top Indian Naxalite Figure Arrested
March 3, 2010 1500 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Venkateswar Reddy (aka Deepak), the right-hand man of the top Naxalite commander in India, was arrested late March 2, the West Bengal government said March 3. Blamed by authorities for the February attack on a West Bengal police camp that killed 25, Reddy is thought to be an explosives expert. But despite his seniority and expertise, his arrest is merely the latest in a spate of recent arrests of Maoist leaders that seem to be having little tangible impact on the movement, which has strengthened in recent years and is trying to expand its reach beyond the heavily forested rural eastern belt to urban India. Though interrogation may reveal important intelligence, and the government could use Reddy to facilitate talks with the Naxalite leadership, arrests in India so far have yet to really address the underlying growth of the Naxalite movement.
Brief: Militants Claim Attack In Niger Delta
March 3, 2010 1459 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Militants from the People's Patriotic Revolutionary Force (PPRF) of the Joint Revolutionary Council (JRC) claimed late March 2 that they had attacked the Kokori field station operated by Shell Petroleum Development Company. The PPRF is a previously unknown militant group, while the JRC is an umbrella militant organization in the Niger Delta that distributes threats against international oil companies via its spokesperson Cynthia Whyte. The attack, which reportedly caused no production disruption due to the field not being in operation, occurred in Erhoike Community of the Ethiope Local Government Area of Delta state.
India: Maoist Accused Of West Bengal Attack Arrested
March 3, 2010 1456 GMT
A Maoist militant known as Deepak and Venkateswar Reddy was arrested by Indian police, AFP reported March 3, citing officials. Reddy is believed to be a close associate of the rebels' top commander, Kishenji, and is accused of attacking a police camp in February in West Bengal district, killing 24 policemen and a civilian. Reddy, 45, was arrested by a special police team late March 2 in Kolkata, and is believed to be a weapons expert.
Brief: U.S. Futenma Base To Remain On Japan's Okinawa
March 3, 2010 1456 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Japanese Deputy Defense Minister Akihisa Nagashima announced Mar. 3 that the disputed U.S. Marine Corp Air Station Futenma would be kept on Okinawa but moved away from the center of the city of Ginowan to a more isolated part of the island according to a 2006 agreement. Residents have called for the base to be moved off the island completely, and have been emboldened since the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) came to power calling for a re-examination of the 2006 agreement and a more independent foreign policy. Also on Mar. 3, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirofumi Hirano suggested that consultations on alternatives to the planned relocation may end -- effectively moving the panel into its final stages. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's May deadline for a decision is looming, and even though in the end the 2006 plan will, in all likelihood, stand -- and the cohesion of the U.S.-Japanese alliance remains strong -- it has been an issue of serious contention in Japan domestically and has strained tensions within the ruling coalition.
Brief: Zimbabwe's Indigenization Act Faces Criticism
March 3, 2010 1452 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Just days after Zimbabwe's Indigenization and Empowerment Act came into effect, officials from both factions of the country's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party have openly criticized the bill and vowed to combat its implementation. Indigenization is essentially a sort of pseudo-nationalization in Zimbabwe which aims to force all businesses with assets worth over $500,000 to transfer a majority ownership to black Zimbabweans by 2015. The bill, which became law March 1, gives targeted firms until mid-April to present their compliance plans to the government. Members of the MDC oppose the measure due to the likelihood that only members of President Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) will benefit, in addition to concerns over the adverse effects the new law could have on foreign direct investment. In the past two days, both Industry and Commerce Minister Welshman Ncube (Secretary-General of the MDC- Arthur Mutambara faction) and the Deputy Minister of Indigenization Thamsanqa Mahlangu, a member of the MDC faction loyal to Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, have distanced themselves from the legislation. Ncube said it is currently being reviewed in the Cabinet committee on legislation, while Mahlangu voiced his support for the party position and advocated that the law be put on the sidelines for the time being. Neither MDC faction is likely to drop its opposition to the measures, while ZANU-PF is even less likely to ease up on its insistence that the law be pushed along.
Tajikistan: Opposition Promises To Challenge Results
March 3, 2010 1449 GMT
The Tajik opposition Islamic Revival Party won two seats and promised to challenge the results in court, ultimately taking their case to the streets should they find the court results unfair, Reuters reported March 3, citing party leader Mukhiddin Kabiri. Legal action will be taken as soon as the week of March 3, but Kabiri, speaking at a party meeting, gave no other details.
Brief: Bosnia-Herzegovina Seeks NATO Membership
March 3, 2010 1446 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Bosnian Prime Minister Nikola Spiric, speaking at the NATO headquarters in Brussels on March 3, said that Bosnia-Herzegovina will use a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Tallinn on April 22-23 as an opportunity to present a plan for joining NATO. However, no accession to NATO will be possible without the consent of the Serb entity Republika Srpska whose Prime Minister Milorad Dodik is in Moscow until March 5. Spiric is in fact a member of Dodik's party and, despite being the prime minister of Bosnia-Herzegovina, is technically subordinate to Dodik in the party structure. Dodik has moved Republika Srpska more firmly into the Russian sphere of influence and his three-day visit to Moscow, where he is attending the opening of a Republika Srpska representation office, is seen as a way to cement the ties to Russia. Russia, which largely stayed uninvolved in Bosnia-n affairs until late 2008, sees the country as a potential distraction for the West.

Brief: Germany To Alter Nord Stream Route?
March 3, 2010 1445 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said March 3 that Germany has decided to take into consideration Polish criticism of the planned route for the Nord Stream pipeline between Russia and Germany that would transverse the Baltic Sea. Sikorski said that Poland has complained that the pipeline, which was not planned to be buried under the sea floor, would have hindered access to the Polish port of Swinoujscie near the border with Germany, where Poland plans to build a liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility to help wean itself off its dependency on Russian natural gas. According to Sikorski, Germany has decided to move the pipeline route to the north and bury approximately 12 miles (20 kilometers) of the route underground so that it does not impede shipping to the Polish port.
Iraq: Four Blasts Hit Baquba
March 3, 2010 1443 GMT
Four bomb blasts hit Baquba, Iraq, on March 3, DPA reported, citing police. One blast targeted ambulances carrying the wounded from earlier attacks.
Brief: Potential Unrest In Hungary
March 3, 2010 1439 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Hungarian political parties on both the left and the right -- including the far-right Jobbik party -- plan to hold rallies on March 15 in downtown Budapest. March 15 is a national commemoration of Hungary's 1848 revolution against Habsburg rule and has been used as an occasion for anti-government protests in the past few years. Hungary has experienced a deep economic crisis in 2008 and 2009 and the ruling Socialist party is deeply unpopular. With general elections slated for April, the planned rallies, all within blocks of one another, could easily turn into social unrest.
Brief: Swedish Visit To Moscow Amid Baltic Tensions
March 3, 2010 1424 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt will visit Moscow to meet with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on March 9, according to a report in Swedish daily Dagens Nyheter March 3. The visit will reportedly concentrate on climate negotiations and EU cooperation as well as Baltic Sea cooperation. However, considering the recent pressure put on the Baltic states by Russian plans to purchase French Mistral-class helicopter carriers, the visit comes at an interesting time to be solely concentrated on environmental issues. Sweden has been one of the most vociferous critics of Russia, and especially of its 2008 war with Georgia. Sweden also considers the Baltic Sea its backyard and Estonia and Latvia its sphere of influence. Bildt and Reinfeldt may therefore have more to talk to Medvedev and Putin about than just the environment and climate negotiations.
Nigeria: Unmanned Station Attacked
March 3, 2010 1419 GMT
The militant group People's Patriotic Revolutionary Force of the Joint Revolutionary Council, Western Division, said on March 2 that it blew up the Kokori field station of Shell Petroleum Development Co. in Delta state, This Day Online reported March 3. Shell Media Relations Manager Tony Okonedo said there were no casualties and production was not affected, because the station was unmanned and it was not producing at the time.
Brief: Ruling Party In Nigeria Says Jonathan Will Not Run In 2011
March 3, 2010 1400 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
The chairman of Nigeria's ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP), Vincent Ogbulafor, said March 3 that the country's northern bloc must retain the presidency when the 2011 national elections are held, Nigerian media reported. The announcement by Ogbulafor at a PDP National Working Committee meeting late March 2 means that acting President Goodluck Jonathan, an ethnic Ijaw from Nigeria's southern Niger Delta region, cannot contest the presidential election that the Nigerian Governors Forum called to be held in January 2011, ahead of the original April date. President Umaru Yaradua, who still has not been seen publicly despite his return from Saudi Arabia on Feb. 24, is not likely to run for a second term, given his medical condition.
Brief: Ukrainian Government Dismissed After No-Confidence Vote
March 3, 2010 1337 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
The government of Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko was dismissed on March 3 after a no-confidence vote passed with the support of 243 members of the 450-member parliament. The vote comes after Timoshenko lost the Feb. 7 presidential election to Viktor Yanukovich. Now the newly elected president has a rocky road ahead of him to attempt to cobble together a new ruling coalition. Yanukovich's Party of Regions is the largest party in the parliament, currently holding 171 of the seats, but needs another 55 seats to form a majority. Yanukovich has the next 30 days to form a coalition, and then will have another 60 days to create a new government -- a step which must be approved by the parliament. If either of these steps fail, Yanukovich will have to call snap parliamentary elections. Either way, this is yet another win for the pro-Kremlin Yanukovich, who needed Timoshenko to be dismissed as prime minister in Kiev to start solidifying his place in the country.
Brief: Government Purges Begin In Ukraine
March 3, 2010 1325 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
The head of Ukrainian energy firm Naftogaz, Oleh Dubyna, was dismissed March 3, according to Energy Minister Yuri Prodan. Dubyna has headed the firm since 2007, and is a close ally of outgoing Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko and an occasional ally of outgoing President Viktor Yushchenko. The management of Naftogaz has been a long-running concern for Russia, and Moscow has fought with the company leading to natural gas disputes. Now that a pro-Russian president has been elected in the country, a purge has begun that will oust key people the Kremlin does not approve of or are loyal to either Timoshenko or Yushchenko. It is now critical to watch which other figures will find themselves out of favor, with the Kremlin eyeing many more in Naftogaz and other key sectors, like metals, in Ukraine.
Greece: Athens May Have To Turn To IMF - Senior Official
March 3, 2010 1320 GMT
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said on March 3 that Athens may have to take recourse in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) if Greece is not financially backed by the European Union, ANA-MPA reported, citing an unnamed senior government official. Papandreou was speaking to his Cabinet, which was looking at supplementary measures for the economy.
Pakistan: Lahore Could Be Target Of Suicide Bombers - Interior Ministry
March 3, 2010 1229 GMT
The Pakistani Interior Ministry has warned Punjab that eight suicide bombers have entered Lahore, Samaa TV reported March 3, citing a letter. Possible targets could include the Lahore high court, the Lahore airport, the Chief Minister's House and the Punjab assembly building, the letter said.
Sudan: JEM Leader Threatens To Walk Away From Talks
March 3, 2010 1209 GMT
Darfur rebel group Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) leader Khalil Ibrahim said on March 3 that if Sudan signs a separate deal with other militants, it will step away from peace negotiations, Reuters reported. Ibrahim said a deal with the Liberation and Justice Movement would undermine JEM's role as the only negotiator for Darfur rebels. Ibrahim said talks have been stopped until JEM gets reassurances.
Russia: Patriarch Kirill I To Visit Armenia
March 3, 2010 1024 GMT
Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia Kirill I will visit Armenia March 16-18 at the invitation of Catholicos of All Armenians Karekin II, Aysor reported March 3.
Greece: Cabinet Backs Austerity Plan
March 3, 2010 1012 GMT
A Greek government source who took part in the recent Cabinet meeting said austerity measures were decided on that will yield 4.8 billion euros, with half from spending cuts and half from tax increases, Reuters reported March 3. The measures include an increase of value added tax by 2 percentage points to 21 percent and trimming public sector salary bonuses by 30 percent, the source said.
Iraq: 3rd Explosion Occurs In Baquba
March 3, 2010 0935 GMT
A third suicide bomber blew himself up, targeting a police gathering at a Baquba public hospital, Aswat al-Iraq reported March 3. Police said at least 25 people were wounded.
Ukraine: Abkhazia, South Ossetia Independence Not Recognized
March 3, 2010 0927 GMT
In the interview with the BBC, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich said Ukraine may not recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, News.am reported March 3. According to Yanukovich, Ukraine is against a politics of double standards, as he referred to Kosovo. Yanukovich stated that recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia is not currently on the agenda.
Italy: 9 Arrested On Iran Weapons Trafficking
March 3, 2010 0859 GMT
Italy’s Finance Police in Milan said officials made nine arrests, including members of the Iranian secret services, in relation to weapons trafficking to Iran, Bloomberg reported March 3. The anti-terrorism authorities will give details of the arrests at a news conference in Milan, according to an e-mailed statement.
Sweden: PM, FM To Visit Russia
March 3, 2010 0834 GMT
Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt will travel to Moscow to meet Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitri Medvedev on March 9, The Local reported March 3. Reinfeldt intends to use the meeting to discuss continued climate negotiations and EU cooperation with Medvedev, and the Baltic Sea cooperation and environmental issues with Putin, according to the Dagens Nyheter daily.
North Korea: Nuclear Envoy To Visit U.S.
March 3, 2010 0824 GMT
South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung Hwan said North Korea's top nuclear envoy plans to visit the United States in early March and could hold discussions to restart dormant nuclear disarmament talks, Reuters reported March 3. Yu stated that North Korea's Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan is planning to visit at the invitation of the U.S. academic community.
Iraq: Five Killed In Baquba Bombings
March 3, 2010 0817 GMT
Suicide bombers attacked two police stations and a hospital in a city northeast of Baghdad, killing at least five people and wounding 20 in a tense run-up to a parliamentary election, Reuters reported March 3. One attacker drove an explosives-packed car, hitting the headquarters of a police rapid reaction force in Baquba, 40 miles northeast of Baghdad. Baquba is in Diyala province where Sunni Islamist militant groups such as al Qaeda still battle U.S. troops and Iraqi security forces, police said.
EU, Singapore: FTA Talks To Start
March 3, 2010 0631 GMT
The European Commission and the Singapore government announced that negotiations for a free trade agreement will start next week, AP reported March 3. In a joint statement, EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht and Singapore's Minister for Trade and Industry Lim Hng Kiang said the first round of negotiations will take place in Singapore starting on March 8. They both expect an "expeditious conclusion of a high-quality FTA."